But You're More Curious About Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, Right? The Truth About SpaceX's Listing Revealed by the S-1 Report

Summary

Jeong Eui-hoon, the sole space-sector analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities, breaks down SpaceX's S-1 registration statement ahead of tonight's record IPO. He explains that SpaceX is now a combined space-AI business where Starlink earns high margins while the AI unit (X, Grok, data-center leasing) burns cash but will generate massive new revenue from Anthropic and Google deals. He provides a three-horizon view: bullish for tonight's pop, expecting extreme volatility in the short term, and recommending accumulation for the medium-to-long term. He also touches on the implications for Korean issues such as NAVER's AI infrastructure play, the end of the SpaceX-related foreign outflow that has pressured Samsung and SK hynix, and the risks embedded in Elon Musk's control structure.

• SpaceX IPO tonight with $135/share offer price and overwhelming global demand, including a massive oversubscription from institutions.
• Starlink is the real profit engine with ~40% operating margin and 61% of total revenue, enjoying a multi-year monopolistic position.
• The AI segment posted a $6.4B operating loss on $3.2B revenue last year, but data-center leasing deals with Anthropic ($12.5B/month from May) and Google ($9.1B/month from October) will radically boost AI revenue and flip the unit to profit.
• P/S ratio looks extreme at ~90x on 2024 revenue, but would fall to ~30x on 2025 forward numbers incorporating the new leasing deals.
• Nasdaq 100 index inclusion is expected in early July, which will trigger passive ETF inflows and add a short-term catalyst.
• Key risks include Starship rocket development delays, heavy dependence on Nvidia GPUs, and Elon Musk's outsize personal/control risk (85% voting power via dual-class shares).
• For Korean stocks: NAVER's AI facility direction is right but needs a clearer funding plan; the end of SpaceX IPO-related foreign outflows may relieve pressure on Samsung/SK hynix.
• The analyst recommends accumulating SpaceX for medium-to-long term and warns of severe short-term waves after tonight's listing.