USDA Acreage Report Set to Move Grain Markets | Presented by CME Group

Summary

This CME Group video previews the upcoming June 30 USDA acreage report and explains how the soybean-corn price ratio reflects farmer planting decisions. It highlights the inverse acreage relationship between corn and soybeans, the impact of input-cost inflation on crop choices, and the ratio's historical tendency to revert to its long-run average, making it a key gauge for grain supply expectations.

• USDA's June 30 acreage report is the first major update to planted acres for corn and soybeans in the new marketing year.
• Corn and soybeans share an inverse acreage relationship; when one expands, the other typically contracts.
• Corn requires significantly more nitrogen-based fertilizer and fuel, making it more sensitive to energy and input-cost inflation.
• When inflationary pressures strain energy supplies, farmers tend to pivot toward less input-intensive soybeans.
• The soybean-to-corn price ratio tends to gravitate toward a long-term average of 2.5 but often overshoots as farmers chase the more profitable crop.
• In the 2023-2024 season, the ratio jumped from 2.48 to 2.8 after the June report revealed unexpected estimates.
• Ahead of the 2026-2027 marketing year, the ratio remains a critical gauge of US planting decisions and future grain supply.