Ideas
AI may be topping; S&P vulnerable.
Mike argues AI leadership may be topping and Amazon's post-earnings selloff is a warning that the equity market's main prop is weakening; he sees a broader market turn and notes crypto moved first while stocks are often last to get the message.
Liquidations broke crypto; Bitcoin weak.
Mike cites the October 10 liquidation cascade as breaking crypto market structure and says it is hard to rebuild a sustained bid; Bitcoin has underperformed a strong S&P, and he endorses Chris Berninski's view that he would get interested only at $75K or lower, so he is not planning on prices returning soon.
Prediction markets have real traction.
Myles notes Kalshi and Polymarket have grown strongly and that prediction markets are one of the crypto-adjacent categories with genuine traction, even though neither has a token.
Stablecoins show real product-market fit.
Myles says stablecoins and payments have shown real fundamental growth and product-market fit, but that growth has not shown up in token prices; he sees this as a durable crypto category with actual usage.
AI-crypto intersection is a key opportunity.
Xavier argues AI and crypto are a massive intersection, with crypto-native talent moving into AI plus crypto; he expects the category to be a key area and says if AI keeps booming, crypto AI-related areas can do well.
Altcoin valuations detached amid token oversupply.
Mike calls the market an air pocket: the speculative-inflow mechanism that pulled capital into crypto is deflating, alt-token supply is excessive, and valuations were detached from fundamentals; token prices can fall even while underlying businesses improve.
Meme coin model is dead.
Mike says memetic value alone is not sustainable and expects the meme-coin model to be recognized as dead; he contrasts it with Bitcoin and gold as special monetary assets, arguing real projects must create value.
Tokens without PMF face wipeout.
Myles expects many teams and tokens without product-market fit to trend toward zero in this bear market; he views the wipeout as healthy because it forces crypto back toward fundamentals and real demand.
Crypto market recovers later this year.
Xavier thinks the bear market may be mellow rather than a severe 2013/2015-style bust, and expects crypto to look better later this year as AI turbulence creates opportunities and the crypto-AI category develops.
Onchain AI agents are a frontier.
Myles says AI agents do not care about crypto's poor UX, making the AI-agent plus crypto-rails combination a natural frontier; he sees onchain agents as a promising area that could transform industries.
Institutions are building on Ethereum rails.
Mike says major institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan have not left crypto and some have grasped the value of open public ledgers like Ethereum; real companies are building here, creating a bigger institutional base even if tokens are not guaranteed to win.
L1s remain an interesting category.
Mike lists L1s and prediction markets as interesting net-new categories with high barriers to entry; breaking in is harder than before but still possible, making them worth watching for investors.
RWAs and onchain asset management grow.
Mike argues onchain asset management and RWA issuance are large categories where many successful issuers and managers can emerge; he calls it the best time for an enterprising onchain asset manager with a niche or trading strategy to tokenize.
Crypto rails can power fintech winners.
Xavier believes the best long-term fintechs may use crypto rails primarily and that entrepreneurs can outcompete early by serving markets or products incumbents like Revolut do not cover; the addressable market is huge.
Pump.fun buybacks at floor look smart.
Myles argues this selloff is when buybacks should happen; he expects protocols like Pump.fun that repurchase supply near the floor will look smart in retrospect, especially if they stop buying back when prices recover.
Hyperliquid is the one working protocol.
Mike says Hyperliquid is one of the few things working and generating revenue, so everyone is gravitating toward it; he frames it as a business that can be modeled and backed into.
Aave fundamentals look attractive after reset.
Mike says after the reset many valuations are more sensible, and he would take a small fundamental nibble in Aave-like assets even while cautioning he is early and prices may not recover soon.
This Bell Curve video, published February 07, 2026,
features Mike Ippolito, Myles O'Neil, Xavier
discussing SPY, BTC, PREDICTION MARKETS, STABLECOINS, AI-SECTOR, ALTCOINS, Meme coins, Crypto tokens without product-market fit, Crypto Market, ETH, L1s, RWAs, Onchain asset management, Crypto-powered fintech, PUMP, HYPE, AAVE.
17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Mike Ippolito,
Myles O'Neil,
Xavier
· Tickers:
SPY,
BTC,
PREDICTION MARKETS,
STABLECOINS,
AI-SECTOR,
ALTCOINS,
Meme coins,
Crypto tokens without product-market fit,
Crypto Market,
ETH,
L1s,
RWAs,
Onchain asset management,
Crypto-powered fintech,
PUMP,
HYPE,
AAVE
