Iran and US Brace for Long War

Summary

Stuart Livingstone-Wallace of Bloomberg discusses the Iran-US conflict as a protracted stalemate. He says attention is refocusing on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, where Houthis are pushing closer to the strait and increasing risks to shipping. He notes oil is well above $100 a barrel and sees no near-term return below that level, while diplomacy remains difficult and neither side appears ready to capitulate.

• Conflict described as neither war nor peace, with no clear exit.
• Houthi push toward Bab el-Mandeb raises Red Sea shipping risk.
• Oil remains well above $100 a barrel with no sign of falling below.
• Diplomacy to return to negotiations remains challenging.
• Hostilities continue at lower intensity but daily shipping attacks persist.
• Both sides seem to expect the other to capitulate first.