MKS Pamp: Gold and metals are a secular trade, not a blow-off top we see across some commodities
Speakers
Nicky Shiels
— Head of Metals Strategy, MKS PAMP
Summary
MKS Pamp's Nicky Shiels discusses her $5,400 gold target and argues the move is a secular debasement trade, not a commodity blow-off top. She expects a short-term silver pullback after an overshoot but remains constructive on medium- to long-term precious metals. She also sees copper, platinum, palladium, and silver as critical metals with tight supply, rising investment demand, and chronic underinvestment.
- Nicky Shiels of MKS Pamp reiterates a $5,400 high target for gold this year.
- She calls gold a secular debasement trade, not a blow-off top.
- She sees silver up 30% in two weeks as overdone and expects a short-term pullback.
- She remains bullish on medium- to long-term precious metals after a pullback.
- She views copper, platinum, palladium, and silver as critical metals with tight supply.
- Demand from the energy transition and AI economy supports critical metals.
- A decade of underinvestment limits new mine supply.
Ideas
Gold secular debasement trade targets $5,400
MKS Pamp sees a high of $5,400 for gold this year, about 30% year-over-year upside, but Shiels stresses it is a secular debasement trade rather than a commodity blow-off top. She argues it is still early innings in the debasement trade and the major geopolitical factors supporting demand are unlikely to change soon.
Silver overshot; expect 20% short-term pullback
Shiels says the near-term precious metals move has overshot: silver rising 30% in the first two weeks is too much too quickly, and she can see a roughly 20% short-term pullback. After that, she expects medium- to long-term bullish trajectories to reestablish at a milder pace.
Critical metals tight supply supports prices
Shiels views copper, platinum, palladium, and silver as critical metals whose stockpiles are concentrated in the US and unavailable to the rest of the world, leaving markets tight and in backwardation. Demand from the energy transition, the AI economy, and investment demand is rising, while a decade of underinvestment means new mine supply cannot come online quickly, so investors want scarcity.
