The midterm elections are 10 weeks away. Here's what markets are watching for

Summary

CNBC reporter Garrett Downs explains what Wall Street is tracking ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. The main risks are delayed or contested election results, a looming 2027 debt-ceiling fight if Democrats gain leverage, and a divided-government scenario where President Trump may bypass Congress through executive action. No specific stocks, sectors, or investable vehicles are recommended in the segment.

• The stock market is starting to focus on the 2026 midterm elections.
• Wall Street firms including Raymond James, TD Cowen, and JPMorgan are flagging election-related scenarios.
• Contested or delayed election results could leave control of Congress unclear for up to a month.
• The U.S. debt ceiling is expected to be reached around $41.5 trillion in 2027.
• Democrats are polling ahead by about 6.4 percentage points and favored to win at least one chamber.
• A Democratic Congress could demand concessions for a debt-ceiling increase, reviving 2023-style brinkmanship.
• Investors usually favor divided government, but Trump may use executive action instead of negotiating with Congress.