Will the old leaders not return? Preparing for the post-Samsung Electronics and SK hynix market

Summary

Hwang Yu-hyun, a PB Team Lead at Shinhan Investment Corp, analyzes the recent Korean market crash driven by single-stock leverage ETF unwinding and forced margin selling. He argues the worst of the forced selling is over, and the market is normalizing, favoring a KOSDAQ recovery. He advises against chasing the previous leaders Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which have lost momentum, and highlights potential new leaders such as Naver and SK Telecom on breakouts, while noting institutional accumulation in semiconductor equipment and materials names.

• Credit balances collapsed from 38.6 trillion to around 27 trillion won as leveraged single-stock ETF unwinds triggered forced selling.
• The selling wave is largely exhausted, and the market is now in a normalization phase.
• KOSDAQ 150 ETF is recommended as the most rational way to play the broad recovery.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are no longer market leaders; overhead resistance and fractured sentiment suggest trimming on rallies rather than new buying.
• Large-cap internet and telecom names such as Naver and SK Telecom could become new leaders if they break key resistance levels, supported by data center catalysts.
• Institutional active funds are heavily accumulating Korean semiconductor equipment and materials names, positioning them for potential leadership in the KOSDAQ rebound.
• The year-end major shareholder capital gains tax selling pressure is expected to be absent this year, removing a traditional KOSDAQ headwind.