Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is a Ticking Time Bomb | Banks Will Take Major Losses in 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 17, 2026 at 14:00  |  32:45  |  Julia LaRoche Show
Speakers
Chris Whalen — Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors

Summary

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to discuss GSE reform, crypto, precious metals, housing, bank earnings, and private credit risks. He argues GSE release is off the table, prefers gold over silver, expects housing affordability to require price declines, and warns that private equity and private credit pose a major 2026 risk for banks. He also favors public markets, NLY for income, Flagstar, foreign equities, defensives, and a weaker dollar, while avoiding bank stocks broadly and crypto.

  • GSE release is effectively off the table after Trump ordered buybacks of GSE debt; Whalen calls the $200B announcement politics.
  • Whalen views crypto as speculative gambling and prefers gold, silver, and precious metals miners, though he expects silver to correct.
  • He sees copper as a short-term supply-driven trade, distorted by Chinese demand.
  • Housing affordability likely requires a 10-30% home price decline, but Fed/Treasury may resist due Treasury market concerns.
  • Bank earnings look strong, but bank stocks are pricey with limited upside; he owns Flagstar and adds to NLY for yield.
  • His biggest 2026 concern is private equity/credit: opaque, illiquid assets and bank lending exposure that could cause major bank losses.
  • He expects a weaker dollar and equity allocation rotation away from tech toward defensive sectors and foreign markets.
  • He favors public markets over private markets, citing endowments' private equity underperformance.
Ideas
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 1:07
GSE release off table; avoid GSE equities.
Trump ordering the GSEs to buy back their own debt effectively takes GSE release off the table because they cannot conduct public policy with private shareholder funds. The buyback is net neutral because GSEs must hedge by selling Treasuries, and the $200 billion announcement is politics ahead of midterms.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 5:41
Crypto is gambling, unsuitable for most investors.
Crypto is a speculative vehicle and a polite form of gambling, unsuitable for most people because of extreme volatility; Bitcoin lost about 30% and Wall Street went quiet, half of stablecoin schemes have failed, and it is only useful as money in places with no functioning government.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 6:55
Own silver, but expect a correction.
Silver is idiosyncratic because it has industrial demand plus a monetary component, making it more volatile than gold. After a vicious short squeeze and a tripling in 12 months, he expects a correction, but he still holds silver in his portfolio and sees no reason not to own both gold and silver.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 7:41
Gold is long-term monetary play.
Whalen prefers gold as a long-term monetary play, with central banks buying gold for monetary purposes and no commercial demand making it less volatile than silver. He holds gold in his portfolio.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 8:16
Buying illiquid precious metals miners slowly.
Whalen has been slowly buying precious metals miners. They are very small, illiquid penny stocks that are difficult to buy, so he is careful and only buying slowly.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 9:21
Copper interesting short-term on supply shortage.
Copper and other metals are seeing a lack of deliverable supply, making them interesting short-term trades; copper is up dramatically this year. However, Chinese demand is the primary driver and can be distorted by CCP edicts, so it is not a clean global growth signal.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 16:06
Large banks face private-credit losses.
Whalen sees a problem in bank lending to private equity firms. Large banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, PNC, and Citigroup, have fast-growing exposure to private equity and private credit; he predicts banks will take major losses in 2026 as PIK accounting masks defaults and busted companies cannot be monetized.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 16:47
Bank stocks pricey, little upside now.
Bank stocks ran hard last year and are pricey; the group may see consolidation and most names have little upside. While trading and investment banking are booming and credit is stable, he says it is not a great trade to go long banks right now.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 17:04
Owns cheap Flagstar, trusts management recovery.
Whalen owns Flagstar, bought very cheaply, knows management, and believes they will slowly bail out the bank. It has exposure to New York City multifamily, but the valuation and early workout make it worth holding.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 18:31
Private credit/equity are opaque ticking time bombs.
Private equity and private credit are rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets that cannot be properly assessed. Nonbanks get liquidity from banks and deploy it poorly; PIK/POP accounting masks defaults; investors will be stuck trying to exit, making this a major ticking time bomb.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 21:51
Public markets better than private; prefer S&P.
Public markets are better than private markets; endowments like Harvard got hurt in private equity and would have done better simply buying S&P 500 futures. He tells readers most of their portfolio should always be in public markets.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 29:34
Own NLY for mid-teens yield.
Whalen owns NLY (Annaly) and continues adding. His basis is about 0.8x book value; he does not buy it for price appreciation but for its mid-teens yield, strong management team, and mortgage servicing model. REITs are income vehicles, not appreciation vehicles.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 31:43
Rotate from tech to defensives, foreign markets.
Heading into 2026, Whalen expects equity allocation musical chairs away from technology, toward other sectors such as defensives, and definitely toward foreign markets.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 31:43
Rotate from tech to defensives, foreign markets.
Heading into 2026, Whalen expects equity allocation musical chairs away from technology, toward other sectors such as defensives, and definitely toward foreign markets.
Chris Whalen Chairman, Whalen Global Advisors 31:52
Weaker dollar expected as foreign focus rises.
He expects a weaker U.S. dollar as investors focus more on foreign markets and equity allocations shift.
Up Next

This Julia LaRoche Show video, published January 17, 2026, features Chris Whalen discussing FNMA, FMCC, BTC, SILVER, GLD, GDX, COPPER, JPM, WFC, PNC, C, BANK, FBC, BIZD, PSP, SPY, NLY, XLK, XLP, Foreign markets, UUP. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chris Whalen  · Tickers: FNMA, FMCC, BTC, SILVER, GLD, GDX, COPPER, JPM, WFC, PNC, C, BANK, FBC, BIZD, PSP, SPY, NLY, XLK, XLP, Foreign markets, UUP