Crash? Even better" Last buying opportunity before Hynix becomes #1 in market cap | Vincent, Hana Securities Analyst [Yeouido Insight]
Speakers
Vincent
— Analyst, Hana Securities
Summary
Vincent, an analyst at Hana Securities, argues that the recent KOSPI pullback is temporary and the index will reach 10000 this year on earnings strength. He reiterates SK Hynix as the single best stock due to its HBM-driven earnings and cheap valuation, and also recommends APR in cosmetics as a secondary pick based on earnings momentum. He views KOSDAQ as a watch for year-end policy catalysts.
- KOSPI target of 10000 points in 2025 supported by earnings growth and valuation re-rating.
- SK Hynix is the top pick; its technology lead and J-curve earnings make it a buy on dips.
- APR (cosmetics) is a secondary pick due to strong earnings, similar to memory semiconductor dynamics.
- KOSDAQ is currently weak but policy catalysts (upgrade system in October) could lift it by year-end.
- Macro risks (rates, inflation) are acknowledged but considered manageable if growth stays strong.
- The speaker emphasizes buying leaders on dips and avoiding rotation into laggards.
- Samsung Electronics is not favored near-term due to uncertain foundry recovery.
- AI-driven demand for memory semiconductors remains the core investment theme.
Trade Ideas
KOSPI to 10000 this year
KOSPI will reach 10000 points this year driven by earnings growth of listed companies (estimated 860 trillion won in 1-year forward earnings) and a subsequent multiple re-rating as the market acknowledges sustained profitability. The recent pullback is a passing volatility before the next leg up.
SK Hynix is the top pick
SK Hynix is the single most attractive stock in the market. It is 'light' (undervalued) relative to its earnings trajectory, has a J-curve effect from HBM, and its technology lead over Chinese competitors ensures pricing power. The rising market cap gap with Samsung Electronics makes a market cap overtaking possible, and any dip should be bought.
APR has strong earnings momentum
APR (the leader in cosmetics) has strong earnings momentum similar to memory semiconductors. Earnings are the common denominator that drives stock prices, and APR's earnings justify a bullish view. It is a secondary pick after SK Hynix.
KOSDAQ has year-end policy catalyst
KOSDAQ is not attractive in the near term due to weak earnings, but policy catalysts such as the upgrade system (scheduled for October) and the national growth fund could provide a boost later this year. It is worth monitoring for a year-end opportunity, but not a current buy.
