SocGen's Juckes Expects Weaker Dollar Through First Half of Year

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 27, 2026 at 17:14  |  5:49  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Kit Juckes — Macro Strategist, Société Générale

Summary

Kit Juckes, Chief FX Strategist at Societe Generale, discusses Japan's FX intervention constraints, the US growth/dollar disconnect, and his dollar outlook. He expects the dollar to weaken through the first half of the year, with EUR/USD supported, but then to strengthen by Christmas unless the US economy slows sharply. He also explains how Japan could influence US bonds and equities if it intervenes, and why Japan may need domestic investors to shift from US Treasuries into Japanese equities.

  • Kit Juckes expects a weaker dollar and higher EUR/USD through the first half.
  • He sees the dollar stronger by Christmas unless the US economy slows materially.
  • He highlights strong US growth forecasts but a market selling the dollar due to expected Fed cuts and no tighter fiscal policy.
  • Japan has short-term intervention power but interventions lack lasting impact without policy changes.
  • Japan may need domestic investors to sell US Treasuries and buy Japanese equities to support the yen.
  • He says uncertainty is no longer helping the dollar as it once did.
Ideas
Kit Juckes Macro Strategist, Société Générale 0:07
Japan intervention may lift US bonds, equities.
Japan has short-term power in FX and bond markets: if it intervenes to strengthen the yen and stabilizes long-dated JGB yields, it can weaken the dollar, help US equities, and push down 30-year Treasury yields. This is a conditional cross-asset setup to watch.
US 30-year Treasuries SPY MED
Kit Juckes Macro Strategist, Société Générale 3:45
Dollar weak in first half; long euro.
Kit expects the dollar to weaken through the first half of the year and is keen on SocGen's Q1/Q2 euro-dollar forecasts, implying EUR/USD can stay at higher levels. Despite the US having the strongest economy and upward-revised growth forecasts, the market is selling the dollar because there will not be tighter fiscal policy and the Fed is going to cut rates; this is an unstable setup.
EUR/USD HIGH
Kit Juckes Macro Strategist, Société Générale 3:45
Dollar weak in first half; long euro.
Kit expects the dollar to weaken through the first half of the year and is keen on SocGen's Q1/Q2 euro-dollar forecasts, implying EUR/USD can stay at higher levels. Despite the US having the strongest economy and upward-revised growth forecasts, the market is selling the dollar because there will not be tighter fiscal policy and the Fed is going to cut rates; this is an unstable setup.
USD HIGH
Kit Juckes Macro Strategist, Société Générale 5:25
Japan may rotate USTs to Japanese equities.
To support the yen without raising JGB yields enough to kill Japan's economy, Japan needs to convince domestic investors to sell US Treasuries and buy Japanese equities, believing in the long-term policy story. He calls it a tall order but says the new government may try.
EWJ TLT LOW
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 27, 2026, features Kit Juckes discussing US 30-year Treasuries, SPY, EUR/USD, USD, EWJ, TLT. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kit Juckes  · Tickers: US 30-year Treasuries, SPY, EUR/USD, USD, EWJ, TLT