Strategic Victory in Iran Could Prove 'Elusive', says Gavito

Summary

Jen Gavito of the Cohen Group analyzes the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, arguing that a strategic military victory is elusive and that the best possible outcome is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without conditions. She also discusses the role of Israel and Hezbollah as potential spoilers in any deal. The discussion focuses on geopolitical limbo and limited options for both sides.

• Jen Gavito states that the Iran conflict cannot be won militarily and negotiations are the only path to resolution.
• She notes that President Trump's maximalist positions make a deal harder to achieve.
• The best-case scenario for the US is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without conditions.
• Iran's key demand is economic relief from sanctions.
• Nuclear progress, such as extended enrichment timelines, is also necessary for a deal.
• Israel and Hezbollah both have incentives to act as spoilers in the negotiations.
• The US has damaged Iran's drone and missile programs, but they will be rebuilt.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic weapon Iran can use in the future.