Calls of the Day: Disney, Colgate-Palmolive, First Solar, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton and Amphenol
Speakers
Joe
— Investment Committee member
Jason Yanowitz
— Co-Founder, Blockworks
Steph
— Investment Committee member
Summary
The Investment Committee discusses analyst calls on Disney, Colgate-Palmolive, First Solar, Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton, and Amphenol. Members debate whether Disney can benefit from media consolidation, whether Colgate can rebound on emerging markets, and whether First Solar's U.S. manufacturing shift and technical support justify a bullish stance. The housing discussion centers on a barbell between Toll Brothers and D.R. Horton, with rate cuts seen as a potential catalyst. Joe also favors Amphenol among the three A's.
- Disney's weak revenue growth and fading momentum leave Joe unconvinced.
- Jason backs Colgate-Palmolive on an emerging-market resurgence.
- Joe maintains a bull bias on First Solar, watching 100-day support.
- Steph favors a housing barbell of Toll Brothers and D.R. Horton.
- Jason sees rate cuts as a potential lift for D.R. Horton.
- Joe picks Amphenol as the easiest of the three A's.
- Allstate and Ametek were mentioned but not debated.
Ideas
Weak growth, fading momentum, low confidence.
Joe is not convinced by the MoffettNathanson call that Disney will be a winner from the media bidding war. He notes Disney's revenue growth has been low single digits for years, which he finds troubling, and his firm's position only ranked at the very bottom of its 125-stock portfolio, admitted because of a second-quarter momentum surge. That momentum is now flatlining, and he says he lacks confidence in the position and thinks the writing is on the wall.
EM resurgence should catalyze Colgate.
Jason owns Colgate-Palmolive and sees it as a call on an emerging-markets resurgence that should be positive for the stock. Although price action has been weak and earnings/revenue have softened over the past year, he views the company's multinational exposure as a catalyst and expects staples to do better this year.
Bullish First Solar on U.S. shift, support.
Joe is bullish on First Solar. Despite margin compression and lowered guidance through 2025, the stock has been resilient because it is shifting production from Southeast Asia back to the U.S. and has opened a new Louisiana plant, while also discussing an accelerated buyback. He points to the 100-day moving average as important technical support that has held since early 2025, and tells long-term holders to maintain a bull bias as long as it holds.
Cheap housing barbell benefits from rate cuts.
Steph is bullish on housing because sentiment is extremely negative and the stocks are very cheap. She is barbelling between high-end Toll Brothers, which she calls best-in-class with the best margins, and D.R. Horton, which is more exposed to first-time buyers where she sees pent-up demand. She argues not much has to go right, and if interest rates come down even a little, both stocks could move much higher.
Rate cuts could lift D.R. Horton.
Jason agrees with the housing strategy and focuses on D.R. Horton. He says new purchasing incentives have been hurting margins, but the Fed is accommodative, so if rates come down, that could really lift the stock. He views it similarly to how he thinks about CRE, regional banks, and the financial sector.
Amphenol is easy pick, long-term winner.
Joe picks Amphenol as the easiest of the three A's mentioned. He notes his firm has owned it since inception for over five years, with the stock up 345%, and describes it as a communications-oriented, diversified technology company.
