Samsung Foundry: Has the Expected Turnaround Arrived? The Biggest Beneficiary in the US-China Rivalry

Summary

So Hyeon-cheol, adjunct professor at Sangji University, argues that the AI-driven DRAM supercycle is unprecedented and still strong, with Samsung and SK Hynix as primary beneficiaries. He also presents a turnaround thesis for Samsung's foundry business, which he expects to benefit from US efforts to reduce dependence on TSMC amid the US-China tech rivalry. He highlights Google's upcoming earnings as the key near-term catalyst for semiconductor stocks.

• DRAM prices have surged over 600% YoY, an historic move driven by hyperscaler AI capex doubling from last year.
• AI model competition (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and B2B adoption are accelerating cloud spending and memory demand.
• Samsung and SK Hynix are direct beneficiaries of the memory upcycle, including custom HBM for non-Nvidia AI chips.
• Samsung's foundry may recover lost market share as US policy pushes to diversify advanced chipmaking away from TSMC's 90% dominance.
• Google's earnings and capex guidance will be a critical signal for the AI investment cycle and semiconductor stocks.
• The US is increasingly leaning on Korea for strategic manufacturing cooperation, including shipbuilding and nuclear energy.
• Potential risk includes a slowdown in the rate of DRAM price increases, though absolute demand remains high.
• Speaker advises watching September smartphone/PC demand data and Google's results before making near-term timing decisions.