As China Buys, Gold Moves Differently: Why Remaining Hedge Options Narrow to Bitcoin | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Paz Bulljang TV CEO [Crypto PLUS]

Summary

Puzzle, CEO of Bulljang TV, explains why Bitcoin has underperformed recently while gold moved differently, and outlines his bullish thesis for Bitcoin in the second half. He argues that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar index is still intact, but gold is decoupling due to Asian central bank buying. He expects the dollar index to fall sharply as the Fed shifts toward cutting rates, speculative dollar longs unwind, and structural flows from tokenized assets bypass dollar demand. This would propel Bitcoin to new highs and also boost U.S. stocks, creating a broad risk-on environment.

• Bitcoin’s recent weakness is driven by a strong dollar index, with which it consistently moves inversely over large cycles.
• Gold is breaking its historical inverse relationship with the dollar and becoming an independent asset, fueled by China and India.
• The Federal Reserve is preparing to ease policy despite hawkish market perceptions, making rate hikes unlikely and cuts probable.
• A potential drop in the dollar index to 90 could send Bitcoin toward $200,000.
• Speculative long dollar positioning has become crowded, historically a signal for a reversal.
• U.S. stocks are expected to rally in tandem as tokenized stock trading via crypto exchanges draws global money without driving up the dollar.
• Fiscal stimulus ahead of the U.S. midterm elections will add liquidity and pressure the dollar lower.