Hamburger Costs Rise 14% From Last July 4 Says Wells Fargo

Summary

Robin Wenzel of Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute discusses rising BBQ costs with ground beef up 14% due to record-low cattle herd, while chicken and pork offer stable alternatives. No beef relief expected until 2027. GLP-1 drugs are shifting demand toward lean protein and fiber. Consumers are also trading down to private label and canned goods to stretch budgets.

• Ground beef prices up 14% YoY on record low cattle supplies spanning 75 years.
• Herd rebuilding will take 2-3 years; meaningful beef price relief unlikely before 2027.
• Chicken breast and pork ribs up only about 3%, providing relative value.
• Dessert costs stabilized as sugar prices flattened; seasonal fruit like watermelon down 3%.
• GLP-1 medications drive consumer preference toward lean protein, dairy, and fiber-rich foods.
• Shoppers increasingly opt for private label, dry goods, and canned goods to manage budgets.
• Transportation costs, including diesel, are embedded in produce prices but may moderate gradually.