Ideas
Samsung margin recovery has more upside.
Samsung's operating-margin recovery is likely to run for multiple quarters rather than just two, because DRAM prices have surged and January export data points to very strong 1Q-3Q earnings. Its OPM still has room to rise, although its mixed handset and display businesses may make it less pure than SK hynix.
Buy KOSPI dip after February correction.
The January KOSPI rally was driven by reform expectations, Fed rate-cut hopes, global liquidity, and surging semiconductor prices, but a February correction similar to 2018 is likely. The speaker expects a roughly 10% drawdown toward 4,650-4,700 and advises using the dip to buy, with strong exports and a high won-dollar rate supporting Korean exporters.
Expect US index correction, then recovery.
The speaker sees US markets shifting to a slowdown from January, with margin debt high and the S&P 500 earnings yield close to the 10-year Treasury yield. He expects a 2018-style correction of around 10%, advises reducing equity exposure and waiting for a 5-month moving-average recovery.
Expect VIX spike to 25-30.
With US and Korean markets overdue for a correction, the speaker expects VIX to spike to at least 25-30 in February, similar to the February 2018 volatility shock.
Watch USD/JPY for yen carry unwind.
Japanese 10-year yields have risen to 2.25%, increasing yen-carry unwind risk. The speaker says the market's next move depends on USD/JPY, notes the recent fall in USD/JPY is concerning, and wants to watch the pair for about two weeks.
Avoid silver after massive monthly crash.
After silver's sharp monthly crash, historical cases in 2004, 2006, and 2008 show that buying the first monthly drop is a mistake; rebounds can occur, but the metal often becomes dead money for about a year. The speaker concludes it is not a buy here.
Gold may repeat 2011 top pattern.
The speaker compares current gold to the 2011 top, when Bank of Korea bought 100 tons near the high and was unable to buy for 13 years. With similar central-bank buying headlines now, he implies caution on gold at current levels.
KOSDAQ still has upside room.
KOSDAQ has lagged KOSPI but still has upside room after its January rally; the speaker notes resistance levels remain above and February seasonality in even years has historically been strong, with February and March particularly favorable.
Buy SK hynix on memory supercycle.
SK hynix is the purest beneficiary of the memory supercycle: operating margins reached 50% in the prior upcycle, it has posted eight consecutive profitable quarters, 2026 earnings estimates are strong, and Morgan Stanley upgraded it. The speaker says he bought it heavily during the 2018 correction because massive earnings kept driving the stock higher.
Bitcoin breakdown signals exit and lower lows.
Bitcoin has fallen about 35% from its high, comparable to the 2021-22 drawdown, and its 5-week/20-week moving averages are forming a dead cross. A failure to reclaim $100,000 is an exit signal, and the breakdown below prior lows points to further weakness.
Refining margins favor Exxon and S-Oil.
The speaker sees a repeat of the 2015-16 petrochemical pattern: oil prices fell while refined product prices stopped falling, improving the margin spread and driving refining and petrochemical stocks higher. Recent strength in Exxon Mobil and S-Oil resembles that setup.
Semiconductor cycle remains in rally.
The speaker argues semiconductor corrections have historically lasted about 10 months before a rally, and the Morgan Stanley 'winter is coming' call ignored AI momentum. DRAM and NAND prices are surging, supporting continued strength in the semiconductor cycle.
Nvidia uptrend slowing, drawdown risk rising.
Nvidia remains the market leader, but its long uptrend is slowing, and the stock has a history of deep drawdowns after massive rallies, such as its fall from 350 to 100 in 2022. The speaker treats it as a risk to watch rather than a clean long.
This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published February 07, 2026,
features Park Se-ik
discussing 005930.KS, EWY, SPY, NASDAQ Composite, VIX, USD/JPY, SILVER, GLD, KOSDAQ, 000660.KS, BTC, XOM, 010950.KS, SMH, NVDA.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Park Se-ik
· Tickers:
005930.KS,
EWY,
SPY,
NASDAQ Composite,
VIX,
USD/JPY,
SILVER,
GLD,
KOSDAQ,
000660.KS,
BTC,
XOM,
010950.KS,
SMH,
NVDA
