Adam May on $ABVX's blowout data and subsequent stock crash
Speakers
A May MD
— Biotech investor
Andrew Walker
— Host, Yet Another Value Blog
Summary
Adam May returns to discuss Abivax's Phase 3 maintenance data and the subsequent 60% stock crash. He argues the cancer signal is statistical noise and that ABVX is mispriced, with part-two safety data due soon and likely M&A optionality. The episode also covers Nektar's alopecia areata data and Eli Lilly litigation, plus Q32 Bio as a competitor.
- Abivax maintenance data beat Rinvoq on clinical and endoscopic remission.
- The stock crashed on perceived cancer risk from seven cases versus one on placebo.
- Adam argues most cancer cases were non-melanoma skin cancers or dysplasia, leaving two real cancers consistent with background rates.
- Part-two Phase 3 safety data are expected within weeks and could clear the overhang.
- M&A and Crohn's readout create upside skew for ABVX.
- Nektar's alopecia areata data looked strong, but the stock sold off; the Lilly lawsuit is a catalyst.
- Q32 Bio's competing alopecia areata data has safety and data-quality concerns.
- Disclosure: the host is long ABVX and NKTR.
Ideas
Abivax mispriced; cancer signal statistical noise.
Abivax's Phase 3 maintenance data in ulcerative colitis were best-in-class: 40% clinical remission delta on 50mg and 39% on 25mg, surpassing Rinvoq's 30-39%, while endoscopic remission delta was 38% versus Rinvoq's 18%. The stock crashed about 60% because the market focused on seven cancer cases in the 50mg arm versus one on placebo, but Adam argues this is statistical noise: one case was colonic dysplasia, not cancer, and four were non-melanoma skin cancers, leaving only one prostate and one breast cancer. There is no carcinogenic mechanism because the drug is not genotoxic and not immunosuppressive, with severe infections lower than placebo, and there is no clustering. Including the seven-year Phase 2 safety database, the all-in cancer rate is about 0.59 per 100 patient years versus a roughly 0.5 background rate. Part-two Phase 3 safety data due within weeks should further clear the overhang. At around $100, the market is pricing a worst-case safety scenario and ignoring the efficacy.
Nektar selloff overdone; AA data strong.
Nektar's alopecia areata maintenance data showed deeper responses with longer treatment, but the stock has fallen from a $92 secondary price to the mid-$50s despite a stable XBI and no new negative news. Adam finds the selloff unexplained and notes Nektar trades at a discount to what a fresh IPO with the same asset would command. Q32 Bio's competing alopecia areata data is open-label and has safety concerns, and the Sanofi/OX40 competitor read-through does not change the long-term thesis. The alopecia areata signal is legitimate and fundamentals have not worsened.
Q32 safety risky; competition overblown.
Q32 Bio's drug targets IL-7, a pathway where human mutations cause severe immunodeficiency called SCID, often fatal, creating significant safety concerns. Its alopecia areata data is open-label and may look better than blinded data, while its blinded efficacy was worse than Nektar's. Management has a history of hyping data and disappointing, including a failed atopic dermatitis study. Adam is not worried about it as a Nektar competitor, implying investors should avoid Q32.
Up Next
This Yet Another Value Podcast video, published June 10, 2026, features A May MD discussing ABVX, NKTR, QTTB. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.