Ideas
Bear market rally will not last
Hay argues the recent rally is a bear-market rally that is unlikely to last. He cites April's three-standard-deviation volatility, still-optimistic S&P earnings estimates, a roughly 20x forward P/E, and a market that is not pricing in recession, so he sees downside risk and another 10-15% decline before a durable bottom.
Prefer short Treasuries over long bonds
He does not trust long Treasuries as a safe haven after they sold off with stocks and the dollar. He prefers shorter maturities, the belly of the curve, roughly 3-5 to 7 years, because long-term rates could rise in a recession.
Prefer short Treasuries over long bonds
He does not trust long Treasuries as a safe haven after they sold off with stocks and the dollar. He prefers shorter maturities, the belly of the curve, roughly 3-5 to 7 years, because long-term rates could rise in a recession.
Gold favored as anti-fragile hedge
Gold has been his favorite anti-fragile asset and a hard asset that should benefit from higher inflation and the fourth-turning backdrop. He notes it is extended after a big run and suggests taking some profits in gold and rotating into miners.
Gold miners set to catch up
Gold miners have lagged gold badly, broke out of a 12-year trading range, and are only in a shallow correction. He expects blowout Q1 earnings at current gold prices and significant catch-up; GDXJ may be the better play than GDX.
Silver poised to catch up
Silver is consolidating after a breakout and the gold/silver ratio above 100 makes it attractive. He argues recession fears have unjustly hurt silver because military and solar demand are less economically sensitive, and he sees it catching up within the precious-metals bull market.
Platinum cheap versus gold
Platinum trades at less than a third of gold after historically trading at a premium, and he likes it as an under-owned hard asset.
CRH is cheap infrastructure play
CRH is an attractive infrastructure-spending play: it trades around 16x earnings versus 25-30x for Martin Marietta and Vulcan, earnings grew 450% over the last decade, most business is in North America, and it is now US-listed but still off most US investors' radar.
Rotate overseas from US equities
He favors rotating US investor capital overseas because non-US markets are cheaper, less exposed, and are being stimulated, while US exceptionalism fades and foreign capital leaves the US. He says the US is lagging overseas markets by the greatest margin since 1993.
Foreign reversal hurts mega-cap tech
Hay sees US mega-cap tech and Nasdaq as vulnerable because foreign capital that has funded US assets is reversing. He notes foreigners own about $18T of US equities and money had flowed into the S&P, Nasdaq, and especially mega-cap tech, while investors remain overweight tech as in 2000.
Hard assets favored for inflation
His overarching thesis is that debt-to-GDP will be reduced through inflation, as after WWII, so investors should position for higher inflation and hard assets. Many hard assets have lagged on recession fears, creating opportunity.
Japanese yen likely appreciates
He remains very bullish on the yen as a non-fragile asset; it is up 10% this year and he expects further appreciation from about 143/USD toward 120 and eventually near 100.
Uranium offers biggest layup
Uranium is a top layup: demand is non-cyclical and rising from new nuclear facilities, supply is constrained, and spot-market shorts have depressed prices. He prefers uranium exposure and notes the Sprott uranium vehicle SRUUF trades at about a 9% discount.
Palladium liked as hard asset
He explicitly likes palladium along with platinum as part of a group of hard assets where most investors are grossly under-exposed.
MTBA is safe income harbor
MTBA is an interesting income vehicle yielding about 6%, run by Harley Bassman, easily bought as an ETF, and has been a nonvolatile safe harbor through recent market stress.
This The David Lin Report video, published May 04, 2025,
features David Hay
discussing SPY, IEI, TLT, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SILVER, PPLT, CRH, VXUS, QQQ, Mega-Cap Tech, Hard assets, FXY, URA, SRUUF, PALL, MTBA.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
David Hay
· Tickers:
SPY,
IEI,
TLT,
GLD,
GDX,
GDXJ,
SILVER,
PPLT,
CRH,
VXUS,
QQQ,
Mega-Cap Tech,
Hard assets,
FXY,
URA,
SRUUF,
PALL,
MTBA
