NATO Nations Can't Spend More on Defense, Lieber Says

Summary

Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber discusses the upcoming NATO summit, highlighting that European allies cannot meet the 5% GDP defense spending target due to fiscal constraints. He notes that Trump's coercive approach is pushing Europeans to diversify defense procurement away from American contractors, a trend likely to persist for years. Lieber also comments on the strain in the transnational conservative movement and the political implications for France, Germany, and other allies.

• NATO summit expected to focus on 5% of GDP defense spending target, which most European nations are too indebted to reach.
• European allies are diversifying away from US defense contractors, seeking alliances with other middle powers as a response to Trump's unreliability.
• The US is unlikely to fully withdraw from NATO but will continue coercive tactics to push Europe toward self-reliance in defense.
• Personal loyalty-based diplomacy has backfired for European leaders trying to align with Trump; conservatives in Europe now see alignment as risky.
• Transnational conservative/MAGA movement is showing signs of stumbling, with key tests in French, German, and UK elections.
• Alberta separatist movements are partly fueled by the American right, complicating the broader conservative movement.