January Is the Time to Strike! Now Is Not the Time to Wait | Lee Eun-taek, Director of Asset Allocation Strategy, KB Securities

Summary

Lee Eun-taek of KB Securities argues that the first quarter is the better window for equities, supported by below-consensus inflation and expected Fed easing, while the second or third quarter carries tightening risk. He remains bullish on semiconductors, expecting a restocking cycle to be followed by an over-ordering cycle as ASIC competition breaks Nvidia's monopoly. He also discusses KOSDAQ's January effect, a two-phase oil view, and rate-sensitive US themes including AI software, space, computing, and SMR nuclear.

• Lee Eun-taek sees first-quarter equities as favorable and advises taking profits early before possible tightening later in the year.
• He expects inflation to run below consensus into spring, supporting Fed easing expectations and risk appetite.
• He favors semiconductors, citing the restocking cycle and a potential over-ordering cycle driven by ASIC share gains.
• He says KOSDAQ may be supported by the January effect but lacks confidence for the full first quarter.
• He expects Brent crude to weaken in the first half and possibly rebound in the second half.
• He highlights US second-derivative AI themes such as AI software, space, computing, and SMR nuclear as rate-sensitive ideas.
• He says the key signals to monitor are inflation data and ASIC semiconductor market-share news.