SpaceX trades post lock-up: Oppenheimer's Timothy Horan on what to expect

Summary

Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer discusses SpaceX shares after a lock-up expiration, arguing the stock is a strong long-term buy despite near-term selling pressure. He cites massive revenue growth, cost-advantaged broadband, an AI vertical integration play, and a path to trillions in valuation, though large capital raises remain a risk.

• SpaceX lock-up expiration caused selling but high short interest signals a potential squeeze.
• Revenue run rate near 50M, on track to double, with 100M ARR expected by year-end.
• Starlink can disrupt broadband with $3-4/sub costs vs. $70-80 US prices, supporting 100M subs.
• SpaceX is called the only vertically integrated AI company, poised to add massive AI compute.
• Horan projects a path to $1T revenue in 7-8 years, requiring $400B in capital raises.
• Firm believes the stock will be worth a few trillion despite the venture-capital-like risk.
• Stock currently looks very cheap on long-term fundamentals.