Bartels Expects Secular Bear Market to Start Next Decade

Summary

Mary Ann Bartels predicts the S&P 500 will rally to 10,000-13,000 by 2030, driven by AI-driven earnings growth and the decennial pattern, followed by a secular bear market. She sees strong corporate earnings and AI adoption boosting stocks for the next four years. The discussion also covers job creation from AI and the limitations of technology on long-term GDP growth.

• Bartels forecasts S&P 500 reaching 10,000-13,000 by 2030.
• She cites AI buildout, strong earnings, and decennial patterns as drivers.
• A secular bear market is expected to start after 2030, lasting 15-20 years.
• Bartels notes that PPI rising early-stage boosts corporate profits.
• She believes AI will create new jobs, not just destroy them.
• The Internet did not change long-term GDP growth trajectory, implying AI may also face limits.
• Bartels emphasizes that earnings have overshot analysts' estimates.
• She advises investors to ride the current wave for about four more years.