Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld on the next test for SpaceX

Summary

Robert Greifeld weighs the near-term headwind of SpaceX's massive lockup expiration against the potential tailwind from NASDAQ 100 inclusion. He argues that roughly $800 billion in unlocked shares will drive selling pressure from price-insensitive early investors, dominating any positive ETF flows. He also shares his personal flip trade and frames SpaceX as a speculative, aspirational bet that defies fundamental valuation.

• SpaceX is expected to be eligible for NASDAQ 100 inclusion soon, potentially starting by early July.
• Greifeld believes the ETF buying power from inclusion is muted and gradual, providing only a limited positive.
• Approximately $800 billion of locked-up shares will become free to sell between now and the end of October.
• Early investors with 10x–11x gains are likely to sell for liquidity, creating significant near-term pressure.
• He personally flipped SpaceX on its debut, highlighting it as a short-term trade.
• The stock trades at 100x revenue and lacks fundamental support, but captures aspirational value tied to Elon Musk's track record.