Jobs Report Great for Warsh and Bonds, BlackRock's Rosenberg Says

Summary

Jeffrey Rosenberg says the June jobs report is great news for Fed Chair Warsh and the bond market, as it reduces pressure for rate hikes and allows the disinflation trend to continue. He also highlights that AI and hyperscaler earnings are the dominant near-term market drivers, while longer-term Fed task forces are important but slow-moving.

• June payrolls came in at 57K vs 113K estimate, with unemployment dipping to 4.2%.
• Rosenberg calls the report "great for Kevin Warsh" and "good for the bond market."
• The data reduces pressure for Fed rate hikes and supports momentum toward lower rates.
• Oil price declines and tariff pass-through are helping disinflation, validating a patient Fed stance.
• He believes the market overreacted to FOMC dots and still uses an old reaction function; today's data helps price that out.
• Hyperscaler earnings and AI news are the near-term market drivers, with AI "the dominant feature" in markets.
• Fed task forces seek to remove the central bank as the primary lens for data interpretation, a long-term objective.