Korea, the US's Irreplaceable Card, Will Rise Like This | Analyst Chae Sang-wook

미국의 대체 불가 카드가 된 '대한민국' 이렇게 오를 것 | 채상욱 애널리스트 [신과대화]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 24, 2026 at 02:00  |  40:50  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Chae Sang-wook — Analyst, Connected Ground

Summary

Analyst Chae Sang-wook argues that Korea is entering a third major bull market as it shifts from being part of China's value chain to becoming the US's primary manufacturing and IT value-chain partner. He expects this to drive a PBR-to-PER re-rating in Korean equities through 2028, with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as core holdings. He also recommends Korean value-up active ETFs, monthly distribution products, US mortgage REITs, and long-term S&P 500 compounding, while avoiding high-yield low-growth annual dividend stocks.

  • Chae Sang-wook says Korea's stock market is in a third 50-year mega bull cycle expected to run to 2028.
  • He views Korea as replacing Taiwan and China as the US's top manufacturing and IT value-chain partner.
  • He favors Korean equities broadly, especially IT, semiconductors, electrical and electronics, power infrastructure, and defense.
  • He names Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as the cleanest large-cap picks, with potential for combined market cap to double.
  • He recommends Korean value-up active ETFs over passive KOSPI 200 exposure.
  • He advises monthly distribution ETFs and US mortgage REITs for income, and warns against high-yield low-growth annual dividend stocks.
  • He also suggests long-term S&P 500 compounding for children's accounts.
Ideas
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 0:56
Third Korean mega bull cycle underway.
Korea's stock market is in a third major 50-year bull cycle that the speaker expects to run through 2028. Unlike the 2004-2007 China value-chain cycle, Korea is now becoming the US's first value-chain partner, shifting the market from a cyclical PBR framework to a structural growth PER framework. He notes that earnings-based KOSPI targets around 5,200-5,600 still leave upside, and he advises investors to stay long Korean equities, or lie down in Korean stocks.
EWY HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 11:20
Buy Korean US value-chain sectors.
The main sector beneficiaries of Korea's US value-chain role are IT and related manufacturing, not only semiconductors: electrical and electronics, foundry, data centers, biomanufacturing, power infrastructure, and defense infrastructure. These areas should see structural growth as Korea absorbs market share from Taiwan and China and becomes the US's top OEM/ODM manufacturing partner.
Korean Semiconductors Korean electrical/electronics Korean data centers Korean bio manufacturing Korean power infrastructure Korean Defense HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 14:03
Samsung and SK hynix can double.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the cleanest large-cap picks for the Korean US value-chain cycle. Combined they should earn about KRW 250tn in operating profit and KRW 200tn in net profit, roughly USD 140bn, a level reached by only four global companies. Even with a value-chain discount, applying half the average mega-cap valuation implies their combined market cap could double to around KRW 3,000tn. Samsung's foundry also benefits from security-driven orders such as Tesla's AI chip.
005930.KS 000660.KS HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 22:14
Buy Korean value-up active ETFs.
The KOSPI Value-up index is a quality-and-momentum index that filters for profitability, momentum, and dividends, unlike KOSPI 200's uncontrolled market-cap weighting that allowed troubled names such as Geumyang. The Value-up index outperformed KOSPI, about 90% versus 75% in the prior year. For Korean stock exposure, the speaker prefers value-up active ETFs such as TIME and KoAct value-up active products.
TIME Value-up Active ETF KoAct Value-up Active ETF HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 28:12
Avoid high-yield low-growth dividend stocks.
High-yield stocks that pay only once a year are not true income investments; they are low-growth companies with high dividend yields and do not match retirees' monthly cash-flow needs. The speaker says he avoids these stocks and warns against buying dying businesses just for their dividend yield.
High-dividend low-growth stocks HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 28:34
US mortgage REITs pay monthly income.
US mortgage REITs such as AGNC and NLY offer monthly dividends around 14% by borrowing at lower short-term rates and holding higher-yielding fixed-rate mortgage and MBS assets. Lower funding costs or MBS purchases can widen spreads and support distributions, making them a replacement for monthly rental income from real estate. Because individual REITs are volatile with interest rates, the speaker suggests mixing them with other monthly-distribution vehicles.
AGNC NLY HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 30:04
Korean monthly distribution ETFs for income.
Korean-listed monthly distribution ETFs that are not covered-call products can pay about 0.5% per month, roughly 6% annually, by distributing part of the market's expected 6% rise and using stock sale proceeds; only about 2-3% comes from actual dividends. Active managers can add value, and the structure provides regular monthly cash flow while retaining growth exposure. The speaker recommends increasing allocations to these products as an alternative to annual high-dividend stocks.
Korean monthly distribution active ETFs HIGH
Chae Sang-wook Analyst, Connected Ground 39:30
Compound in S&P 500 long term.
The S&P 500 has a 50-year expected return of about 9.5% in dollars, and with the won expected to weaken about 2% per year, the won-based return can be roughly 12%. Annual gifts of KRW 12mn compounded in the S&P 500 for 40 years could grow to about KRW 15.5bn, making it an efficient long-term compounding vehicle for children.
SPY MED
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 24, 2026, features Chae Sang-wook discussing EWY, Korean Semiconductors, Korean electrical/electronics, Korean data centers, Korean bio manufacturing, Korean power infrastructure, Korean Defense, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TIME Value-up Active ETF, KoAct Value-up Active ETF, High-dividend low-growth stocks, AGNC, NLY, Korean monthly distribution active ETFs, SPY. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Chae Sang-wook  · Tickers: EWY, Korean Semiconductors, Korean electrical/electronics, Korean data centers, Korean bio manufacturing, Korean power infrastructure, Korean Defense, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TIME Value-up Active ETF, KoAct Value-up Active ETF, High-dividend low-growth stocks, AGNC, NLY, Korean monthly distribution active ETFs, SPY