Oil Rises as US, Iran Dispute Whether Hormuz is Open; Big Week in Markets | Bloomberg Brief 07/13/26

Summary

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran drive oil higher as the Strait of Hormuz status is disputed. Asian markets sell off sharply, led by a record drop in SK Hynix due to memory cycle fears, while TSMC gains on strong AI-driven sales. Investors face a busy week with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony, CPI data, and major bank earnings. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman argues oil will carry a persistent risk premium and outlines a conditional dollar-short trade if oil prices fall.

• Oil rises as US-Iran strikes dispute Strait of Hormuz status; fragile MOU in crisis phase.
• SK Hynix records biggest-ever drop on peak memory cycle concerns; TSMC sales soar on AI momentum.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to testify; CPI/PPI data and big bank earnings this week.
• Thierry Wizman expects persistent oil risk premium due to market discounting US-Iran agreement durability.
• Wizman sees Q4 Fed rate hike baseline, with chance of September if oil spikes.
• Wizman outlines conditional short-dollar trade against CNH, JPY and EUR if oil prices decline.
• Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death creates GOP succession turmoil.