The Identity of the 'Relief Pitcher' Who Will Stop the Decline in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Stock Prices | Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center, Unistory Asset Management

Summary

Semiconductor technician Kim Jae-ui analyzes DRAM demand from humanoid robots vs autonomous vehicles. He concludes that humanoid robot DRAM demand is negligible and the narrative is overhyped. Autonomous driving, however, could become a meaningful new demand driver by 2028-2030, potentially reaching 10-40% of smartphone-scale DRAM demand and serving as a 'relief pitcher' for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices. Investors should watch the 2028 timeline for this catalyst to begin being priced in.

• Humanoid robot DRAM demand is forecast to be tiny (at most 2-7% of smartphone DRAM demand even by 2030) and will not be a meaningful driver for memory stocks.
• Autonomous vehicle DRAM demand is calculated to be much larger, potentially 10-40% of smartphone DRAM demand by 2030, qualifying as a significant new application.
• The autonomous driving DRAM demand catalyst is expected to become visible to the market around 2028, potentially pulling forward 2030 estimates.
• This catalyst could act as a 'relief pitcher' for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix by providing a new growth narrative when new semiconductor supply comes online and could soften DRAM prices.
• Tesla's Optimus robot DRAM demand is also calculated to be minor (1-5%), even under optimistic scenarios.
• The speaker advises putting the autonomous driving DRAM thesis on watch, not trading on it immediately, as the real inflection point is years away.