The stock market playbook for 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 18:27  |  8:04  |  CNBC
Speakers
Kevin — CFO, Apple Inc.

Summary

The Investment Committee discusses the 2026 stock market setup. Jenny warns that consensus bullishness and AI-driven labor risks warrant taking risk off the table, while Kevin expects the AI trade to keep growing and stocks to grind higher with volatility. Malcolm uses Bitcoin as a barometer of retail stress and advocates de-risking, and Jenny highlights MicroStrategy as a canary for retail investor strain.

  • Panel debates whether 2026 will continue 2025's winners or broaden out.
  • Jenny advises de-risking after three strong years and rotating into international and fixed income.
  • Kevin says the AI trade is still real but selectivity and active management will matter.
  • Malcolm sees long-term Bitcoin selling as a sign of retail investor stress.
  • Jenny cites MicroStrategy as a canary for retail investors running out of cash.
  • Panel generally expects a more challenging market environment in 2026.
Ideas
Jenny 2:25
Take risk off the table
After three strong years, she is worried by pure consensus bullishness, backward-looking data, AI-driven job loss risk, and consumption-dependent GDP, so she advises taking risk off the table: reduce high-growth exposure and rotate into better valuation, international equities, and fixed income, without calling a major bear market.
SPY High growth stocks HIGH
Jenny 2:25
Take risk off the table
After three strong years, she is worried by pure consensus bullishness, backward-looking data, AI-driven job loss risk, and consumption-dependent GDP, so she advises taking risk off the table: reduce high-growth exposure and rotate into better valuation, international equities, and fixed income, without calling a major bear market.
ACWX TLT HIGH
Kevin CFO, Apple Inc. 3:49
AI trade still real and growing
He believes the AI trade remains real and is still growing, even if the growth rate slows, making it a continued investment theme into 2026.
AIQ HIGH
Kevin CFO, Apple Inc. 4:06
US equities slow grind higher
He expects the first part of 2026 to be a continuation of 2025's market setup, with volatility but a slow grind higher, requiring stock selectivity and active management.
SPY MED
Malcolm 5:51
Bitcoin shows retail investor stress
He sees Bitcoin as a better read on retail investor fear and greed than the VIX; since October, about $3 billion of long-term Bitcoin holdings have moved into circulation at the fastest pace in five years, indicating retail investors are selling to raise cash and a warning sign for markets.
BTC HIGH
Malcolm 6:58
De-risk for weaker 2026
Citing the retail stress signal from Bitcoin selling and long-term holders moving coins into circulation, he thinks 2026 is unlikely to be as strong as the last three years and advises looking at de-risking.
SPY MED
Jenny 7:12
MicroStrategy signals retail investor stress
She has watched MicroStrategy since July and saw money coming out; she views it as the canary in the coal mine showing a huge base of retail investors feeling pinched and running out of dollars, a negative signal for risk assets.
MSTR MED
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Jenny, Kevin, Malcolm discussing SPY, High growth stocks, ACWX, TLT, AIQ, BTC, MSTR. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jenny, Kevin, Malcolm  · Tickers: SPY, High growth stocks, ACWX, TLT, AIQ, BTC, MSTR