JPMorgan under pressure more from earnings than credit card fee cap, says UBS' Erika Najarian

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2026 at 20:29  |  4:26  |  CNBC
Speakers
Erica Najarian — UBS Financials Analyst

Summary

UBS analyst Erika Najarian discusses bank earnings on CNBC's Power Lunch, arguing JPMorgan's pressure is more about a high earnings bar and temporary investment-banking timing than the credit card fee cap. She names Capital One as a top pick because its Discover acquisition gives it a credit-card network that is more defensive against policy risk. She also expects investment-banking revenue delays to be temporary and still sees a 2026 capital-markets boom supporting banks.

  • JPMorgan's weakness is attributed more to high expectations and delayed investment-banking revenue than the credit card fee cap.
  • The delayed investment-banking fees are expected to shift into the first quarter rather than disappear.
  • Capital One is highlighted as a top pick with a key advantage from owning a credit-card network after Discover.
  • The Credit Card Competition Act remains a policy risk for card networks and payment companies.
  • The consumer is described as okay near term, with potential stimulus supporting credit-card growth.
  • Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America face a lower bar after JPMorgan's results, but no clear directional call is made.
  • Najarian still expects a capital-markets boom in 2026 that supports the bank sector.
Ideas
Erica Najarian UBS Financials Analyst 0:35
JPM weakness temporary; buy rating intact
UBS has a buy rating and $380 price target on JPMorgan. Najarian argues JPMorgan's underperformance is driven mainly by a high bar and temporary investment-banking revenue timing rather than the credit card fee cap; delayed investment-banking fees should shift into the first quarter and do not change the expected 2026 capital-markets boom.
Erica Najarian UBS Financials Analyst 2:51
2026 capital markets boom supports banks
Investment-banking revenue delays from the government shutdown will be felt across the bank industry, including Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, but she views it as moving revenue from one quarter to the next rather than changing the story. She still expects a capital-markets boom in 2026 that supports banks.
Erica Najarian UBS Financials Analyst 3:22
Top pick on Discover network defense
Capital One is one of her top three picks. Its purchase of Discover gives it one of only four credit-card networks, making it more valuable and defensive against potential policy changes such as the Credit Card Competition Act that could pressure Visa and Mastercard. A still-okay consumer and stimulus from the Big Beautiful Bill should support near-term credit-card growth.
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