Markets, Economy Ignoring Policy Shocks, Says Morgan Stanley's Skelly
Speakers
Dan Skelly
— Head of Market Research, Morgan Stanley E*TRADE
Summary
Dan Skelly of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management discusses how markets have looked through policy shocks by focusing on AI and the consumer. He sees the upcoming midterm elections as a near-term cap on the 20% equity rally from March lows, while providing a balanced view on Kevin Warsh's potential Fed impact.
- Markets have been treating policy shocks as pop-up ads, focusing on AI and consumer resilience.
- Midterm elections seen as next pop-up ad that will likely cap further market upside.
- The 20% rally off the March 30th low may be limited by political uncertainty.
- Skelly mentions looking for opportunities into 2027 after navigating the political cycle.
- On the Fed, Kevin Warsh's possible stance is seen as a wash between hawkish short rates and dovish balance sheet reduction.
- Overall, the call is for cautious equity exposure in the near term.
Ideas
Midterms to cap market upside.
The market has been treating policy shocks as temporary 'pop up ads' and instead focused on AI and a resilient consumer. The next pop up ad, the midterm elections, will likely cap further upside following the 20% rally off the March 30th low.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 29, 2026, features Dan Skelly discussing SPY. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dan Skelly · Tickers: SPY