Wall Street Giants Race to Quantum-Proof Bitcoin

Summary

Charles Schwab's Jim Ferraioli argues the CLARITY Act is not priced into Bitcoin and could ignite a rally, while also highlighting Bitcoin's low correlation and production-cost fair value near $95k. Galaxy's Alex Thorn discusses the new Bitcoin Security Consortium and the tight timeline for the CLARITY Act. FalconX's Griffin Sears explains how perpetual futures have expanded from crypto into oil, single-name equities, and pre-IPO SpaceX exposure, driven by 24/7 trading demand.

• Fed hike odds are ~30-36%, and a hike would be a short-term negative for crypto.
• Ferrioli: CLARITY Act passage odds explain only ~4% of Bitcoin's daily moves; a passage could reignite the institutional adoption narrative and drive a rally.
• Ferrioli finds ~60% of Bitcoin's daily price changes are not explained by macro factors, reinforcing its low-correlation, scarce-asset nature.
• Ferrioli sees Bitcoin's fair value around $95k based on inefficient miner production costs, with a possible year-end rally.
• Ether ETF inflows topped Bitcoin ETFs last week, but Ferrioli cautions that the rally may not be sustainable without higher utility activity.
• Thorn outlines the $15M Bitcoin Security Consortium and Galaxy's $5M quantum readiness initiative, noting no immediate quantum threat but the need to prepare.
• Thorn says the CLARITY Act is in its '11th hour' and needs a Hail Mary to pass before the August recess, significantly lowering his odds to 30%.
• Sears explains that perps have expanded into oil, single-name equities, and pre-IPO SpaceX exposure, with 24/7 trading forcing traditional venues to adapt.
• ETF recap: Bitcoin ETFs saw weak net inflows of $33.8M, while Ether ETFs attracted $103.9M; Crypto Fear & Greed remains at 30 (fear).