The Bull and Bear Case for SpaceX
Speakers
Michael Monaghan
— Portfolio Manager, Founder ETFs
Andrew
— Partner and CIO, True North Advisors
Summary
Michael Monahan of Founder ETFs makes a bullish case for buying SpaceX at the IPO, emphasizing three distinct growth engines in Starlink, defense, and AI that could each become Fortune-class businesses, while Andrew of True North Advisors argues the valuation is priced to perfection with excessive founder risk and reveals plans to sell after a 50–60x private return.
- SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest ever.
- Bull case: Starlink, defense, and AI/data as standalone Fortune 50–100 businesses pushing revenue to $200B by 2030.
- Michael Monahan sees SpaceX as the lowest-cost AI compute provider and a sovereign closed AI network.
- He highlights index inclusion (Russell, Nasdaq, S&P) and thin float as strong demand catalysts.
- Bear case: current valuation requires unrealistic growth across all segments, including 200x AI revenue.
- Andrew cites founder governance risk (Elon Musk holds 80% voting power) and competitive threats from state-backed rivals.
- True North Advisors intends to exit public exposure after already capturing a 50–60x gain in private markets.
- AI capex sustainability and broader competitive dynamics remain key debates around the IPO.
Ideas
SpaceX is a three-in-one opportunity: Starlink, defense, and AI/data businesses each could be Fortune 50–100 companies. Revenue jumped from $18B to $27B in two years, and the company will likely be cash flow positive this year. He projects $50B from Starlink, $50B from defense, and $100B from AI/data by 2029–2030, totaling $200B revenue. SpaceX will become the lowest-cost AI compute provider and a sovereign AI closed network. Index inclusion into Russell, Nasdaq, and later S&P will create sustained demand against a thin float, while founder voting control is a positive, not a risk. He will be buying at the open.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 12, 2026, features Michael Monaghan discussing SPCX. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Monaghan · Tickers: SPCX