The Stock Market As America's Retirement Plan

Summary

Eric Balchunas argues that broad stock ownership and government backstops have turned the US equity market into a public utility that can't be allowed to fail. Michael Ball warns that a coming wave of IPO and big-tech stock supply, combined with softer buybacks and wobbly credit markets, could weigh on equities. Vanessa Perdomo notes the World Cup's effect on luxury spending and discusses the macro outlook for rate hikes and financial conditions.

• 58% of Americans own stocks; Trump accounts may push participation even higher.
• The stock market is increasingly seen as a publicly backed institution that cannot fail.
• SpaceX shares have fallen below IPO price amid momentum unwind and high initial valuation.
• Upcoming IPOs and stock sales by Alphabet and others could create excess equity supply.
• Buyback support is weakening as mega-tech free cash flows decline.
• Credit market wobbles may force more equity issuance, adding to supply pressure.
• World Cup ticket prices and luxury suites reflect high-end spending fuelled by the strong stock market.
• Vanessa Perdomo expects 75bps of rate hikes and an end to easing financial conditions.