Can USMCA Survive Trump’s Second Term?

Summary

Former diplomats from Canada, Mexico, and the US discuss the USMCA review under Trump's second term. They argue the deal is likely to be renewed with modifications, notably stronger rules of origin for autos and protection against Chinese inputs. While uncertainties remain, they see the agreement as critical for North American economic integration and cross-border investment.

• The USMCA is likely to stay in place even if not renewed by July 1, with the review clause designed for six-year checks.
• Negotiators expect modifications, particularly in auto rules of origin to require more US content and exclude Chinese components.
• Mexico's former ambassador highlights the intertwined nature of the auto industry, with Ford and GM operating across the Americas.
• Canada's former ambassador stresses that the agreement underpins rules on IP, agriculture, services, and customs.
• All three speakers see North American integration as crucial for global competitiveness and attracting investment.
• Certainty of a 16-year extension would unlock further Mexican investment in the US and agricultural exports.
• The broader geopolitical context and China's auto exports add urgency to fortifying North America as an economic bloc.