NEC's Hassett Warns of Weaker Jobs Report

Summary

Luke Tilley of Wilmington Trust joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss the weak U.S. labor market ahead of the January jobs report. He projects 60,000 private payrolls and an unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, then 4.8% by mid-year, driven mainly by demand-side caution and tariffs. Tilley remains optimistic on long-term U.S. growth and expects manufacturing reshoring, but warns of short-term pain and data-revision uncertainty. The discussion also covers Kevin Hassett's warning of lower jobs numbers and BLS measurement issues.

• Luke Tilley expects a weak January jobs report with 60,000 private payrolls and unemployment at 4.5%.
• He sees private-sector weakness outside healthcare, with almost 250,000 jobs shed when healthcare is excluded.
• He attributes hiring caution mainly to weak demand, tariffs, uncertainty, and AI, not just labor supply.
• Tilley expects unemployment to rise to 4.8% by mid-year, calling it a short-term adjustment.
• He remains optimistic on long-term U.S. growth and expects manufacturing reshoring over time.
• He notes jobs data revisions and BLS birth-death model issues make each report harder to read.
• Kevin Hassett's comments about lower jobs numbers due to slower population growth are discussed.