Semiconductors are still cheap? Check 'this signal' that breaks before earnings

Summary

Guest Director Jung Tae-geun of Mir Economic Research Institute presents a bearish tactical view on Korean semiconductor stocks, arguing that the export growth cycle is peaking and a correction similar to 2021’s memory winter is likely. He recommends selling Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on any rally to previous highs and holding cash, and warns that an index-led market means KOSPI and KOSDAQ will decline alongside chips. Hosts Myung Min-jun and Park Ga-young engage with the thesis and also promote a spicy kimchi product.

• Jung Tae-geun turns bearish on Korean semiconductor stocks after noting a sharp deceleration in month-on-month export growth in June.
• He draws a detailed historical parallel with the 2021 memory winter, when Morgan Stanley’s bearish call preceded a significant correction despite strong AI-like narratives.
• The thesis focuses on the peaking year-on-year price increase rate as a leading indicator for stock price tops, even with record expected earnings and capex.
• He advises individual investors to sell Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on any rebound to previous highs and raise cash.
• Because the market is currently index-led, he expects KOSPI and KOSDAQ to fall in tandem with semiconductor stocks, recommending investors avoid or reduce overall Korean equity exposure.
• He acknowledges the powerful long-term AI investment cycle but argues that industries and stock prices often diverge in the short-to-medium term.
• The video also features a product promotion segment for a spicy kimchi set.