Let's Distinguish Between Bull and Bear Markets First! How to Filter Out 'Untradable Sections' with Moving Averages | Myeong Min-jun, Park Ga-young, Lee Ji-hwan

Summary

Lee Ji-hwan, CEO of Aurora Investment Advisory, explains how to distinguish bull and bear market phases using simple moving averages, particularly the 20-day, 60-day, and 120-day lines. He also discusses current semiconductor conditions, arguing that the three overhangs have eased and that foreign supply/demand for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix is improving. The conversation includes US midterm election seasonality and technical cautions about chasing extended stocks.

• Market phase identification can be simplified with 20/60/120 moving averages; normal alignment signals uptrend, inverse alignment downtrend, and a mixed zone calls for no trading.
• In US midterm election years, August-September tends to be weak, while late October through post-election often rallies.
• Semiconductor peak-cycle fears, China risk, and shareholder-value concerns have largely eased.
• Samsung Electronics is seeing improving supply/demand and possible Temasek buying interest, while SK hynix eased concerns with an interim dividend and action pledge.
• Recent KOSPI foreign buying partly reflects short covering and may improve with mid/long-term fund inflows.
• Late-session Samsung selling on option expiry day is likely program flow and may not be a trend change.
• SK hynix is extended above its 120-day line, so chasing near term carries pullback risk.