[Highlight] Has the US-Iran War Peaked? | Dr. So Hyeon-cheol & Executive Director Park Se-ik & Chesley Head of Learning [Byeoljubujeon / 26.07.25.Sat]

Summary

Dr. So Hyeon-cheol provides a deep historical review of Iran's relations with the West, analyzes the current US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, and argues that full-scale war is unlikely. He then pivots to Korean shipbuilding stocks, which he views as cheap and poised to benefit from new military ship orders, including Saudi submarine interest and a US-Korea shipbuilding cooperation center.

• Historical context of Iran's dynastic changes, the 1979 Islamic revolution, and the US hostage crisis.
• Structural factors making Israel fearful of Iran's size and nuclear breakout capability.
• Current tensions stem from proxy dynamics, Iran's internal economic collapse, and leadership power struggles.
• Assessment that full-scale US-Iran war is 80-90% unlikely due to domestic pressures and China's mediation.
• Oil prices spiked on Hormuz control fears but could ease if war risk fades.
• Bullish on Korean shipbuilders: HD Hyundai Heavy, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Heavy.
• Catalysts: Saudi submarine review, US-Korea shipbuilding center, cheap next-year valuations (P/E ~13-14x, ROE >20%).
• Shipbuilding upcycle and military orders provide strong momentum.