What Can Venezuela Look Like Without Maduro?

Summary

Erik Schatzker discusses US-Venezuela relations after Nicolás Maduro's ouster, drawing on his 2021 interview with Maduro. He argues Venezuela's institutions are not ready for democracy overnight, comparing the transition to Spain in the 1970s. On energy, he says Venezuela's degraded oil infrastructure limits any production rebound to 300,000-500,000 barrels over 18-24 months, while Chevron has low-cost operational upside and Canadian oil sands face little near-term displacement risk.

• Erik Schatzker recounts negotiating for four years to interview Nicolás Maduro.
• Schatzker describes Maduro as a cunning, tough leader and says dictatorship requires skill.
• Venezuela's institutions, judiciary, police, and military are not ready for democratic rule.
• The transition may resemble Spain in the 1970s rather than an overnight democratic handover.
• Venezuela's oil infrastructure is degraded, limiting near-term production growth to perhaps 300,000-500,000 barrels.
• Chevron could increase Venezuelan output via OpEx rather than CapEx.
• Canadian oil sands are not likely to be displaced by Venezuelan barrels over the next 18-24 months.
• US refiners have spare capacity and reasons to keep importing Canadian crude.