Ideas
No broad alt season coming.
The market has too many tokens and the game has changed from last cycle; there will not be a broad alt season. Future alt rallies will just be liquidity-driven, short-lived bursts when macro risk appetite improves, then money disperses like a casino until the next paycheck.
Bitcoin four-year cycle no longer works.
The structural reasons for the four-year Bitcoin cycle are gone; macro with high debt and rates that do not help either way will produce random choppiness rather than a predictable cycle.
L1 premium has disappeared.
The L1 premium no longer works because every token is now an L1, so the premium cancels out. Historically L1s earned a premium from network effects and free labor from builders, but now chains must bribe builders with grants and tokens, eliminating that premium.
Too many chains leech value.
The problem is not just too many memecoins but too many L1s, L2s, and infrastructure pieces doing the same thing, which leeches value from established chains. If Ethereum or Solana had less competing chain dilution, their prices would be much higher.
L1/L2 tokens overvalued via grants.
Many L1/L2 tokens are overvalued because chains hand out large grants to developers. Devs can launch forks, collect grants, let them go to zero, then repeat, making grant arbitrage a profitable strategy while showing the underlying tokens are overvalued.
Memecoin casino is net negative.
Memecoin and celebrity-token speculation is a musical-chairs casino where most participants are late and lose money. It is a net negative for the average person, even if some early traders profit.
Fartcoin bounces hardest if market bounces.
Taiki remains involved in Fartcoin, selling some bounces but still holding a bag. He may buy back higher if it shows strength and believes that if the market bounces, Fartcoin will bounce the hardest, framing it as the best AI coin.
DeFi coins are value traps.
Most DeFi coins are value traps: they look cheap but revenues are cyclical, they have no moat, and they rely on coins with no fundamentals, making them uninvestable.
Stablecoin bill could revive RWA.
A stablecoin bill is likely to pass in the next three to six months, which could bring RWA back. Taiki is knowledgeable about the sector and sees it as a potential way to make money.
New token launches are structurally overvalued.
New token launches are structurally flawed: founders offer kickbacks to bid tokens at TGE, creating artificial demand and high FDVs, while not enough supply is released initially to cap overexcitement. This can lead to later unlocks and a slow drip to zero.
Solana better; Bitcoin too expensive.
Taiki holds ETH but is unhappy holding it; Solana is probably the better play now, though it carries risk because it is heavily dependent on memecoins; Bitcoin is too expensive, especially as altcoins have devalued against it.
Solana better; Bitcoin too expensive.
Taiki holds ETH but is unhappy holding it; Solana is probably the better play now, though it carries risk because it is heavily dependent on memecoins; Bitcoin is too expensive, especially as altcoins have devalued against it.
XRP and Cardano still expensive.
Despite some assets reaching fair value, XRP and Cardano still look irrationally valued: XRP has a roughly $141B market cap and $150B FDV, and Cardano is still a top-10 asset, which Jordi finds hard to make sense of.
AI crypto meta will continue.
Most AI crypto coins are worthless, but the AI meta is not over because AI dominates macro and the real economy. Crypto and AI will keep colliding, and the meta will produce huge winners as new technological innovations unlock more pieces.
This Steady Lads Podcast video, published February 14, 2025,
features Jordi Alexander, Justin Bram, Taiki Maeda
discussing ALTCOINS, BTC, L1 tokens, L1/L2 infrastructure tokens, L1/L2 tokens, Meme coins, FARTCOIN, DeFi coins, RWA, New token launches, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, AI-SECTOR.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jordi Alexander,
Justin Bram,
Taiki Maeda
· Tickers:
ALTCOINS,
BTC,
L1 tokens,
L1/L2 infrastructure tokens,
L1/L2 tokens,
Meme coins,
FARTCOIN,
DeFi coins,
RWA,
New token launches,
ETH,
SOL,
XRP,
ADA,
AI-SECTOR
