More Important Changes Than the September Rate Hike... The Market Is Already Looking for the 'Next Winner' | Myeong Min-jun, Seo Su-jin, Song Jae-gyeong

Summary

Song Jae-gyeong, CEO of Dimension Investment Advisory, presents long-term US market-cap concentration data showing that chasing number-one and top-10 stocks has historically underperformed, and argues that equal-weight and small/mid-cap styles may be entering a leadership cycle. He recommends equal-weight baskets for long-term investors and KOSPI 200 equal-weight ETFs for Korean retail investors, while also discussing space and rocket names as a venture-capital-style basket. On the macro side, he expects a hawkish hold at the September FOMC using the dot plot, with possible short-term equity relief but a cautious, rangebound September.

• A US top-1 market-cap-only strategy historically underperformed the S&P 500 excluding the top name by a wide margin.
• Entering the S&P 500 top 10 tends to mark the end of excess outperformance.
• Song sees a long-cycle rotation opportunity toward equal-weight and small/mid-cap styles.
• He recommends KOSPI 200 equal-weight ETFs after their August outperformance versus cap-weighted KOSPI 200.
• Listed space and rocket names are discussed as a long-term equal-weight venture-style basket including Rocket Lab, excluding SpaceX.
• S&P 600 and Russell 2000 differ by profitability and are regime-dependent small-cap tools.
• September FOMC is expected to be a hawkish hold with dot-plot signaling; near-term stock relief is possible.
• September is viewed as a seasonally weak, rangebound month to manage risk rather than bet aggressively.