The current tariff environment is not nearly as uncertain as last year, says Raymond James’ Ed Mills

Summary

Ed Mills of Raymond James discusses the tariff landscape, arguing the Supreme Court decision may change the process but not the outcome because existing trade deals and Section 232 tariffs remain. He says tariff uncertainty is lower than last year and the weighted average tariff rate is likely at a high water mark. Mills also highlights China, saying Chinese exports would be a big winner if tariffs come off, and that a likely Trump-Xi meeting in April is a better story for China.

• Supreme Court may rule on tariffs, but Raymond James expects process change, not outcome change.
• Existing trade deals and Section 232 tariffs limit the impact of any adverse court ruling.
• Tariff refunds likely move to the Court of International Trade; administration may run out the clock.
• Mills sees tariff uncertainty lower than last year and weighted average tariffs at a high water mark.
• Trump's focus on affordability has led to removal of some tariffs.
• If tariffs come off, Chinese exports are seen as the biggest winners.
• A likely Trump-Xi meeting in April is viewed as a better story for China.