Samsung Electronics Plays Bold Card with HBM4 '1c Process'... Will It Break SK hynix's Solo Lead? | Analyst Lee Ju-wan

Summary

Industry analyst Lee Ju-wan discusses the improving NAND market, Samsung Electronics' relative NAND cost advantage over SK hynix, and Samsung's HBM4 strategy using the 1c DRAM process. He argues NAND demand is supported by data-center SSD adoption but remains structurally lower-margin than DRAM. In HBM4, the market starts from a zero base, with Samsung potentially gaining share if 1c yields and customer validation succeed, while SK hynix's unchanged process offers near-term yield stability and 16-high hybrid bonding becomes a key equipment event.

• NAND demand is improving as data centers replace HDDs with SSDs and AI raises performance needs.
• NAND prices lagged DRAM and may have catch-up room, but NAND margins remain structurally lower.
• Samsung Electronics has a lower NAND cost base than SK hynix, giving it more operating leverage if NAND volumes rise.
• Samsung's HBM4 will use 1c DRAM, a two-generation jump that could improve performance if yields are stable.
• SK hynix's HBM4 advantage is its unchanged stacking process, which may allow quicker yield stabilization.
• HBM4 is a zero-base market where customer validation and ASIC/non-Nvidia customer wins are critical.
• The shift to 16-high HBM4 hybrid bonding is a major event with unverified winners among equipment makers.
• HBM market share shifts are expected as Samsung enters, potentially taking share from SK hynix and Micron.