Tom Lee: AI and Crypto Are Reshaping Global Finance Right Now
Speakers
Tom Lee
— Managing Partner & Head of Research, Fundstrat
Summary
Tom Lee discusses the resilience of US stocks amid geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, highlighting the market's ability to reach new highs. He shares bullish views on software stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Echoar as a SpaceX proxy, and explains the methodology behind his Granny Shots ETF. The conversation also covers sentiment survey distortions, upcoming mega-IPOs, and the transformative impact of AI and blockchain on finance.
- S&P 500 at all-time highs despite war and high oil, driven by structural tailwinds and weak investor conviction.
- Software stocks are attractive after a 6-month sell-off that fully unwound the 'software eating the world' thesis.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are positioned as base layer winners in blockchain for store of value and compute.
- Echoar (ECHO) offers a pure-play way to gain exposure to SpaceX at near-NAV pricing.
- The Granny Shots ETF (GRNY) selects stocks tied to multiple structural themes and has outperformed in multiple regimes.
- Tom Lee expects turbulence later this year from a new Fed chair and potential oil price reconciliation.
- Mega-IPOs (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) could total ~$4 trillion, but may be absorbed by underallocation to public equities.
- Sentiment surveys like University of Michigan are distorted by partisan composition and methodology changes.
Trade Ideas
Software stocks offer positive reward now.
Software stocks are attractive because bad news is already priced in; the sector's relative price is back to 15-year lows, and the 'software eating the world' thesis has been unwound over the past six months, creating a positive reward opportunity.
Granny Shots ETF outperforms via multi-theme stocks.
The Granny Shots ETF (GRNY) holds stocks tied to multiple structural themes (labor shortage, AI, energy, cyber, millennials, manufacturing cycle, monetary policy) and has outperformed the S&P 500 in both growth and regime-change environments; it is a basket of the 'Mag 35' high-conviction names.
Echoar is a pure play on SpaceX.
Echoar (ECHO) is a pure play on SpaceX because it sold its spectrum to SpaceX in exchange for stock, and it trades near NAV, making it a better way to gain SpaceX exposure than closed-end funds that trade at a premium.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are base layer winners.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the base layer winners in blockchain: Bitcoin is best for storing value, Ethereum serves as the compute layer. Both are foundational to the crypto ecosystem and benefit from institutional adoption and tokenization trends.
