Name: AI Creates More Traffic Than Humans…Why the Semiconductor Supercycle is Coming Again | Kim Jang-yeol, Unistory Asset Management Research Center Head [Today's Focus Stock]
Uploaded: 2026-08-11T11:30:21+00:00
Duration: 2367 s

Speakers

Kim Jang-yeol — Reporter, The Bell

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol argues that the steep decline in Korean memory stocks is driven by non-fundamental factors like ADR premiums and leveraged ETF unwinds, not a semiconductor cycle peak. He sees Samsung and SK hynix as severely undervalued versus Micron, with the bottom confirmed and recovery ahead once macro stabilizes. AI infrastructure funding deals led by Nvidia and surging AI agent traffic reinforce long-term semiconductor demand, pointing to continued earnings strength.

The recent sell-off was 80% driven by ADR premiums, double-leveraged ETF unwinds and supply/demand distortions, not fundamentals.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are trading at a 40%+ discount to Micron, a gap that must narrow toward historical norms.
AI data center capex remains intact; Big Tech is not slowing investment.
LTA contracts and HBM supply constraints limit DRAM price downside, keeping earnings robust.
Next-year earnings are forecast to rise 30–40%, with current PER near historical cycle lows (5–6x).
Nvidia’s $500 billion AI funding consortium with BlackRock, Goldman, KKR accelerates infrastructure buildout.
Cloudflare’s data shows AI-driven traffic surpassing humans, underwriting long-term semiconductor demand.
Recovery’s speed depends on macro (rates, CPI) but the fundamental floor is firm.

Ideas

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 0:44

Samsung and SK Hynix: deeply undervalued rebound.

The sharp 1.5-month sell-off in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix was driven 80% by non-fundamental supply/demand distortions — ADR issuance at large premiums over local shares, extreme unwinding of double-leveraged ETFs — not by any deterioration in memory fundamentals. The bottom has been confirmed. AI data center investment is not peaking; Big Tech capex remains committed. Concerns about a semiconductor cycle peak are overblown because even if DRAM prices soften by 3-5% per quarter, volume growth from new fabs (Yongin, P5) and cost reductions keep earnings strong. Next-year earnings are projected to rise 30-40%, making the stocks extremely cheap at ~5x P/E. The two names are trading at an abnormal 40%+ discount to Micron; this gap should narrow to the historical 10-15% discount, implying a rally to 280,000–290,000 KRW for Samsung and 180,000 KRW for SK hynix. LTA contracts and HBM supply constraints add pricing stability.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 3:21

Micron: strong demand, 6x earnings bargain.

Micron's recent weakness is not justified by fundamentals. Demand is actually strengthening, and the company's strategic price limitation with key customers is a sign of confidence, not demand softness. Even under conservative price decline assumptions, Micron trades at only ~6x P/E, the low end of its historical 6-10x cycle range, making it extremely cheap. The long-term AI data center trajectory supports sustained earnings growth.

Kim Jang-yeol Reporter, The Bell 23:34

Nvidia's AI funding deal boosts growth outlook.

Nvidia's collaboration with major Wall Street firms (BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR, etc.) to raise $500 billion for AI infrastructure funding is a positive catalyst. The mechanism, including a 25% residual value guarantee, reduces downside risks and accelerates data center buildout. It reinforces Nvidia's role as the computing ecosystem backbone beyond just GPU sales, signaling strong long-term AI capex commitment.

AI Creates More Traffic Than Humans…Why the Semiconductor Supercycle is Coming Again | Kim Jang-yeol, Unistory Asset Management Research Center Head [Today's Focus Stock]

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