This time it's really dangerous... The worst bear market, what's the scariest scenario? | Jang Woojin, Geumsigong CEO [Weekend Interview]

Summary

Jang Woo-jin, CEO of Geumsigong, delivers a strongly cautious outlook on Korean equities. He argues that the powerful macro tailwind of low oil, low rates, and a weak dollar has reversed into a liquidity-draining 'triple high' environment. Within this, AI semiconductor stocks face margin peaks, decelerating earnings growth, and bubble-like valuation expansion that make them vulnerable. He advises raising cash and avoiding KOSPI and big-chip Korean AI names like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics until clarity returns, while watching for credit stress and geopolitical escalation.

• The Korean market's rally was driven by a 'triple low' macro (low oil, low rates, weak dollar) that has now reversed, draining liquidity.
• Non-semiconductor stocks already entered a bear market with double-top patterns; the broad KOSPI outlook is cautious.
• AI semiconductor names show extreme margins and valuation expansion that resemble a bubble; further profit growth will decelerate.
• SK Hynix's operating margin above 70% and gross margin near 80% cannot improve, limiting upside.
• Upcoming big tech AI capex figures need to beat expectations of 1.3x growth to avoid a further market shock.
• Credit risks are building from household/corporate refinancing and commercial real estate, with Oracle's downgrade as an early warning.
• Geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict could spike oil and the dollar, potentially triggering EM foreign exchange crises.
• The recommended strategy is to hold elevated cash, avoid KOSPI and major AI semiconductor stocks, and wait for a better risk-reward entry.