Name: 4-5% yields on the 10-year signal 'a vote of confidence in the economy', says Ed Yardeni
Uploaded: 2026-09-14T11:12:07+00:00
Duration: 439 s

Speakers

Ed Yardeni — President, Yardeni Research

Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box

Summary

Ed Yardeni joined Squawk Box to discuss his year-end S&P 500 target, bond yields, the AI boom, and earnings momentum. He remains constructive on equities and technology, sees 4-5% 10-year Treasury yields as a healthy signal, and expects AI infrastructure construction to continue despite calls for guardrails. He also flags risks from oil and bonds and discusses potential Treasury issuance tactics.

Ed Yardeni keeps an 8400 year-end S&P 500 target but lowered his probability to 70%.
He cites strong earnings momentum and a lower PE multiple assumption.
He views 4-5% 10-year Treasury yields as a vote of confidence in the economy.
He says a quick move to 6% would be more concerning and Bessent could use bill issuance to ease bond market pressure.
He sees a productivity-led technology boom continuing.
He expects AI infrastructure and data center construction to keep growing despite AI slowdown talk.
The conversation also touches on AI/China philosophical risks without a clear trade.

Ideas

Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 0:47

S&P 500 to 8400 on earnings momentum

Yardeni remains bullish on the S&P 500 ending the year near 8400 even after lowering his probability from 80% to 70% on oil and bond risks. He cites extraordinary 'fabulous earnings momentum': analysts are already at $419 per share for next year, he expects $425 by year-end, and applying a 19.7x multiple still gets to 8400. He raised his earnings target but lowered his PE target because investors are nervous and multiples are compressing.

Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 3:45

4-5% 10-year yields signal healthy economy

Yardeni views 4-5% yields on the 10-year Treasury as a vote of confidence in the economy rather than a danger sign: the economy is doing fine and can withstand and justify those rates. He is not terribly alarmed at 5% and would be more concerned only if yields quickly spike to 6%.

Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 4:14

Bessent may ease bond market pressure

Yardeni would not be surprised if Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued more bills and fewer bonds to take pressure off the bond market if yields stress, noting Janet Yellen used that tool in 2023 when the 10-year yield hit 5%. This is a potential policy support for Treasuries rather than an immediate directional call.

Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 5:04

Productivity-led technology boom continues

Yardeni sees a very strong case that the U.S. is in a productivity-led technology boom that will continue, supported by strong productivity numbers and unit labor cost inflation of only 1.4%. This underpins his positive view on technology even as the market worries about AI capital spending slowing.

Ed Yardeni President, Yardeni Research 5:24

Data center construction will not slow

Yardeni is not concerned about recent announcements that companies want to slow AI advancement. He argues there are already constraints on how quickly data centers can be built, and he does not think construction of AI infrastructure will slow; he considers more AI guardrails important, not a reason to expect a capex slowdown.

4-5% yields on the 10-year signal 'a vote of confidence in the economy', says Ed Yardeni

Summary

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