Semiconductor H2 earnings forecast..." Now 5-year units? | Kim Rok-ho, Hana Securities Research Center Team Leader [Double Crew]

Summary

Kim Rok-ho, team leader at Hana Securities Research Center, discusses the sharp correction in Korean memory stocks. He argues the sell-off has already priced in a severe downturn and that SK hynix’s bottom is set. He points to a second-half earnings surge and the structural shift toward 5-year long-term supply contracts as drivers that will reduce cyclicality and trigger a re-rating of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He maintains a bullish long-term view.

• SK hynix’s 50%+ decline already discounts a downturn, and the stock’s bottom is seen as set.
• H2 2025 earnings for SK hynix are expected to nearly double from H1, supporting a recovery.
• Samsung and SK hynix have both signed 5-year long-term supply contracts with major data center customers, a structural shift.
• Samsung, previously passive, now commits 60–70% of capacity to these contracts, surprising the market.
• The contracts provide downside price protection and are expected to trigger a valuation re-rating for Korean memory makers.
• Kim projects a combined market cap of Samsung and SK hynix reaching 400 trillion won in the next cycle even with lower peak earnings.
• The main risk to his thesis is a collapse in AI demand or extreme memory compression advances, both considered unlikely.