Trump's 'Project Freedom' Is Nearly Impossible to Pull Off, Says Gavito

Summary

Jennifer Gavito discusses the difficulty of Trump's 'Project Freedom' to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, arguing it is nearly impossible due to Iran's ability to disrupt shipping and the impact on insurance rates. She also says there is no military solution to the Iran conflict, and that both sides need a diplomatic off-ramp while negotiating from maximalist positions.

• Gavito doubts the US claim that an IRGC attack on a warship happened.
• She says clearing the Strait of Hormuz is essentially impossible because Iran only needs to disrupt, not stop, traffic.
• Two US-flagged ships transited, but that is far below normal traffic of 100-plus vessels.
• The threat of violence and rising insurance costs make resuming global commerce difficult.
• Iran's nuclear program is an existential issue; the regime believes it negotiates from strength.
• Gavito sees no military solution and insists a diplomatic off-ramp is necessary.
• Both sides are taking maximalist positions but exchanging proposals, leaving room for creative compromise.