Name: Goldman: The U.S. economy will prove to be stronger than expected in 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-02T12:21:07+00:00
Duration: 248 s

Speakers

Gene Goldman — CIO, Cetera

Summary

Gene Goldman, CIO of Cetera, outlines three 2026 market themes: a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, below-average S&P 500 returns of 4-6%, and continued market leadership broadening away from mega-caps. He favors equal-weight S&P, small/mid caps, value, technology, healthcare, and industrials, while warning that tariffs, midterms, and high valuations may create near-term volatility.

Gene Goldman expects the U.S. economy to outperform consensus in 2026.
He forecasts 4-6% S&P 500 returns, citing high valuations and weak presidential-cycle seasonality.
He expects market breadth to broaden away from mega-cap leadership.
He favors S&P equal weight, small/mid caps, and value.
He remains positive on technology due to early AI build-out and data-center/cloud investment.
He likes healthcare on attractive valuations and demographics, and recently upgraded industrials.
He sees near-term volatility from tariffs, midterm elections, and Supreme Court decisions.

Ideas

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 1:04

Expect below-average 4-6% S&P return.

Expects the S&P 500 to deliver below-average returns of 4-6% in 2026. The market backdrop is solid because the economy is better, oil, the dollar, and yields are at multi-year lows, and earnings look great, but high valuations around 22.5x forward P/E leave little room for multiple expansion, second-year presidential-cycle seasonality has averaged only about 2% since 1960, and markets expect more Fed cuts than the Fed does.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 1:42

Avoid mega-cap tech on high valuations.

Expects leadership to move away from mega-caps, especially mega-cap technology, because their valuations are high and leave little room for multiple expansion as market breadth broadens.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 1:48

Favor equal weight as breadth widens.

Favors S&P equal weight because mega-cap concentration has high valuations while equal-weight valuations are attractive, and historically when the Fed cuts rates, market breadth widens.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 1:55

Overweight small, mid, and value.

Overweight small and mid caps, and value, because historically when the Fed cuts rates, market breadth widens and these areas tend to do well; the firm is positioned there now.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 3:17

Like tech despite valuations on AI.

Still favors technology despite valuation concerns because AI remains in the early innings of its build-out, with massive investments in data centers and cloud infrastructure, and because productivity gains are historically the biggest driver of long-term market returns, though those gains are not yet visible in the data.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 3:38

Healthcare attractive on demographics and valuations.

Likes healthcare because valuations are still attractive and the sector is supported by aging demographics and managed care demand.

Gene Goldman CIO, Cetera 3:44

Upgraded industrials on energy infrastructure support.

Recently upgraded industrials, acknowledging it is already the third-best performing sector this year, but sees more support from energy infrastructure, though the transcript cuts off before the full rationale.

Goldman: The U.S. economy will prove to be stronger than expected in 2026

Summary

Ideas

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